Proceedings of IAHS
Proceedings of IAHS
PIAHS
Articles | Volume 386
Articles | Volume 386
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-69-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-69-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 386
Post-conference publication
 | 
19 Apr 2024
Post-conference publication |  | 19 Apr 2024

Calculating flood probability in Obihiro using a probabilistic method: incorporating the probability of dike failure with uncertainty

Fumihiko Uemura, Guus Rongen, Shigekazu Masuya, Takatoshi Yoshida, and Tomohito J. Yamada

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A Method for Municipalities to Enhance Disaster Resilience for Potential Future Floods Using a Climate Projection Database
Akihiro Suzuki, Fumihiko Uemura, Tsuyoshi Hoshino, Taro Yamamoto, and Tomohito J. Yamada
Proc. IAHS, 386, 101–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-101-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-101-2024, 2024
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Cited articles

Dean, R. G., Rosati, J. D., Walton, T. L., and Edge, B. L.: Erosional equivalences of levees: Steady and intermittent wave overtopping, Ocean Eng., 37, 104–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.07.016, 2010. 
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Technical Study Committee Report on River Dikes of the Damage Caused by Typhoon No. 19, Hagibis, https://www.mlit.go.jp/river/shinngikai_blog/gijutsu_kentoukai/dai03kai/pdf/houkokusyo.pdf (last access: 30 January 2024), 2020. 
Vergouwe, R.: The national flood risk analysis for the Netherlands: final report, Rijkswaterstaat VNK Project Office, OCLC 952522344, 2016. 
Tabata, K., Fukuoka, S., and Sezaki, T.: Study on evaluation method for probability of levee failures during large scale flood, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 71, I_1273–I_1278, https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejhe.71.I_1273, 2015. 
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Short summary
To accurately assess flood risk, it is necessary to evaluate whether a dike will fail. The internal structure and slope conditions of dikes are different from place to place, and it is difficult to survey all of them. Thus, we proposed a method to define the heterogeneity of levees as uncertainty and to calculate the dike failure as probability. Our method can set conditions of dike failure that are closer to reality, and will contribute to improving the accuracy of flood risk assessment.
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