Proceedings of IAHS
Proceedings of IAHS
PIAHS
Articles | Volume 386
Articles | Volume 386
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-69-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-69-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 386
Post-conference publication
 | 
19 Apr 2024
Post-conference publication |  | 19 Apr 2024

Calculating flood probability in Obihiro using a probabilistic method: incorporating the probability of dike failure with uncertainty

Fumihiko Uemura, Guus Rongen, Shigekazu Masuya, Takatoshi Yoshida, and Tomohito J. Yamada

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Short summary
To accurately assess flood risk, it is necessary to evaluate whether a dike will fail. The internal structure and slope conditions of dikes are different from place to place, and it is difficult to survey all of them. Thus, we proposed a method to define the heterogeneity of levees as uncertainty and to calculate the dike failure as probability. Our method can set conditions of dike failure that are closer to reality, and will contribute to improving the accuracy of flood risk assessment.
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