To enhance disaster resilience, we proposed a method to make potential future flood scenarios based on a climate projections. Focusing on the information necessary for decision-making, we also developed an exercise method using the scenarios. we conducted a simulation exercise with a municipality using this method. In this case, evacuation information for specific areas and times were issued and valuable insights were provided, thus preparedness for potential future flood disasters enhanced.

To accurately assess flood risk, it is necessary to evaluate whether a dike will fail. The internal structure and slope conditions of dikes are different from place to place, and it is difficult to survey all of them. Thus, we proposed a method to define the heterogeneity of levees as uncertainty and to calculate the dike failure as probability. Our method can set conditions of dike failure that are closer to reality, and will contribute to improving the accuracy of flood risk assessment.