The evolution of irrigation under climate change is analyzed between 1950 and 2100. Results indicate that the influence of irrigation on evapotranspiration in irrigated areas increases in the future (compared to an historical period). Also, the effect of irrigation on water resources is also higher in the future than in the historical period. Finally, we identify areas where future hydroclimate conditions can limit irrigation, or areas where irrigation can increase tensions around water use.

Explore2 provides hydrological projections for 1,735 French catchments. Using QUALYPSO, this study assesses uncertainties, including internal variability. By the end of the century, low flows are projected to decline in southern France under high emissions, while other indicators remain uncertain. Emission scenarios and regional climate models are key uncertainty sources. Internal variability is often as large as climate-driven changes.

Soil organic carbon stockage is a key process to mitigate climate change and is intertwined with soil temperature and moisture and of other secondary soil properties. This study shows the significance of secondary drivers in the relationship between soil moisture and microbial efficiency in soil organic carbon degradation. Using empirical relationships in a global ecosystem model enhanced significantly the heterogeneous spatial pattern of soil organic carbon stock and carbon dioxide fluxes.

This study analyses simulations of regional climate over the Iberian Peninsula, with and without an explicit simulation of irrigation. It shows that the model matches observations much better with irrigation, particularly river discharge and evapotranspiration. The presence of simulated irrigation also makes the air cooler over irrigated areas and more humid over the whole Peninsula, leading to increases in rainfall, mostly located in the mountains that surround the highly irrigated Ebro Valley.

The Explore2 project has provided an unprecedented set of hydrological projections in terms of the number of hydrological models used and the spatial and temporal resolution. The results have been made available through various media. Under the high-emission scenario, the hydrological models mostly agree on the decrease in seasonal flows in the south of France, confirming its hotspot status, and on the decrease in summer flows throughout France, with the exception of the northern part of France.