Articles | Volume 383
Post-conference publication
16 Sep 2020
Post-conference publication |  | 16 Sep 2020

Estimating extreme dry spell risk in Ichkeul Lake Basin (Northern Tunisia): a comparative analysis of annual maxima series with a Gumbel distribution

Majid Mathlouthi and Fethi Lebdi

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Cited articles

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Beguería, S.: Identificación y características de las fuentes de sedimento en áreas de montaña: erosión y transferencia de sedimento en la cuenca alta del río Aragón, PhD thesis (unpublished), University of Zaragoza, 2003. 
Bogardi, J. J. and Duckstein, L.: Evénements de période sèche en pays semi-aride, Revue des Sciences de l'Eau, 6, 23–44, 1993. 
Bobée, B., Cavadias, G., Ashkar, F., Bernier, J., and Rasmussen, P.: Towards asystematic approach to comparing distributions used in flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 142, 121–136, 1993. 
Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and Mays, L. W.: Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 572 pp., 1988. 
Short summary
This paper analyses a 42 year time series of daily precipitation in Ichkeul Lake Basin (Tunisia) in order to predict extreme dry-spell risk. A comparison of observed and estimated maximum dry events (42 year return period) showed that Gumbel distribution fitted to annual maximum series gives better results than the exponential (E) distribution combined with partial duration series (PDS). Indeed, the classical Gumbel approach slightly underestimated the empirical duration of dry events.