Articles | Volume 371
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-59-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-59-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Ability of a land surface model to predict climate induced changes in northern Russian river runoff during the 21st century
O. N. Nasonova
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Y. M. Gusev
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
E. M. Volodin
Institute of Numerical Mathematic, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
E. E. Kovalev
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
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Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteocharacteristics for basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers in the 21 century have been obtained for four global climate change scenarios. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the selected basins in the 21 century. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator.
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
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A. Gelfan, V. A. Semenov, E. Gusev, Y. Motovilov, O. Nasonova, I. Krylenko, and E. Kovalev
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2737–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015, 2015
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Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric variability (IAV) on the hydrological response is analyzed. On the basis of ensemble experiments with GCM and hydrological models, we found, e.g., that averaging over ensemble members filters the stochastic term related to IAV, and that a considerable portion of the simulated trend in annual Lena R. runoff can be explained by the externally forced signal (global SST and SIC changes in our experiments).
Ye. M. Gusev, O. N. Nasonova, L. Ya. Dzhogan, and E. E. Kovalev
Proc. IAHS, 371, 13–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-13-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-13-2015, 2015
Short summary
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Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteocharacteristics for basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers in the 21 century have been obtained for four global climate change scenarios. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the selected basins in the 21 century. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator.
K. E. O. Todd-Brown, J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, V. Arora, T. Hajima, C. Jones, E. Shevliakova, J. Tjiputra, E. Volodin, T. Wu, Q. Zhang, and S. D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 11, 2341–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, 2014
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Short summary
The land surface model SWAP was found to be robust and can be applied for climate change studies. The river runoff projections up to 2100 were calculated for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. Scatter among SWAP’s projections due to application of different post-processing techniques for correcting biases in meteorological forcing data did not exceed 8%, while differences between changes in runoff projected by two models are much larger.
The land surface model SWAP was found to be robust and can be applied for climate change...