Belgium has faced intense droughts in recent years, causing major losses across sectors. To assess their rarity, we used a hydrological model to reconstruct fifty years of soil moisture in the country. We show that 2011–2020 experienced the most severe droughts since 1971, with nearly 30 % of the decade under drought. We also show that rainfall-based indicators underestimate soil moisture droughts, so including soil moisture monitoring can give decision-makers a clearer picture of drought risks.

Understanding the changes in water movement in earth is crucial for everyone. To quantify this water movement there are several techniques. We examined how different methods of estimating evaporation impact predictions of various types of water movement across Europe. We found that, while these methods generally agree on whether changes are increasing or decreasing, they differ in magnitude. This means selecting the right evaporation method is crucial for accurate predictions of water movement.

We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, with clusters of 775 and 630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.

This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at the district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct damage of extremes on crop yields and farm revenue. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of EUR  781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights herein can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.

The July 2021 flood in central Europe was one of the deadliest floods in Europe in the recent decades and the most expensive flood in Germany. In this paper, we show that the hydrological impact of this event in the Ahr valley could have been even worse if the rainfall footprint trajectory had been only slightly different. The presented methodology of spatial counterfactuals generates plausible unprecedented events and helps to better prepare for future extreme floods.