Articles | Volume 379
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-139-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333,
Russian Federation
Yeugeniy M. Gusev
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333,
Russian Federation
Evgeny E. Kovalev
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333,
Russian Federation
Georgy V. Ayzel
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119333,
Russian Federation
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The land surface model SWAP was found to be robust and can be applied for climate change studies. The river runoff projections up to 2100 were calculated for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. Scatter among SWAP’s projections due to application of different post-processing techniques for correcting biases in meteorological forcing data did not exceed 8%, while differences between changes in runoff projected by two models are much larger.
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Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteocharacteristics for basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers in the 21 century have been obtained for four global climate change scenarios. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the selected basins in the 21 century. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator.
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Short summary
Projections of climate induced changes in streamflow of 11 large-scale rivers located in five continents were modeled up to 2100 using meteorological projections simulated by five global circulation models (GCMs) for four climatic scenarios. Contribution of different sources of uncertainties into a total uncertainty of river runoff projections was analyzed. It was found that contribution of GCMs into the total uncertainty is, on the average, nearly twice larger than that of climatic scenarios.
Projections of climate induced changes in streamflow of 11 large-scale rivers located in five...