Seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from Upper Jhelum catchment

Abstract. An operational hydrological forecast model was set-up based on the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) in order to forecast Kharif flows from Upper Jhelum catchment. Zone-wise degree-day factor functions were derived by diagnostic calibration and are applied according to a defined temperature rule when melting starts. While predicting the depletion of snow-covered area by SRM's modified depletion curve approach, scenario runs with temperature and precipitation of past years are carried out which are evaluated statistically to forecast the seasonal flow volume.