Articles | Volume 371
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-3-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-3-2015
12 Jun 2015
 | 12 Jun 2015

Implication of calibration period on modelling climate change impact on future runoff

F. H. S. Chiew, H. Zheng, and J. Vaze

Abstract. This paper explores the consideration and implication of calibration period on the modelled climate change impact on future runoff. The results show that modelled runoff and hydrologic responses can be influenced by the choice of historical data period used to calibrate and develop the hydrological model. Modelling approaches that do not take this into account may therefore underestimate the range and uncertainty in future runoff projections. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated with the choice of hydrological models and consideration of calibration dataset for modelling climate change impact on runoff is likely to be small compared to the uncertainty in the future rainfall projections.

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Short summary
This paper explores the consideration and implication of calibration period on the modelled climate change impact on future runoff.