Articles | Volume 371
Proc. IAHS, 371, 3–6, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-3-2015
Proc. IAHS, 371, 3–6, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-3-2015

  12 Jun 2015

12 Jun 2015

Implication of calibration period on modelling climate change impact on future runoff

F. H. S. Chiew, H. Zheng, and J. Vaze F. H. S. Chiew et al.
  • CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, G.P.O. Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Abstract. This paper explores the consideration and implication of calibration period on the modelled climate change impact on future runoff. The results show that modelled runoff and hydrologic responses can be influenced by the choice of historical data period used to calibrate and develop the hydrological model. Modelling approaches that do not take this into account may therefore underestimate the range and uncertainty in future runoff projections. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated with the choice of hydrological models and consideration of calibration dataset for modelling climate change impact on runoff is likely to be small compared to the uncertainty in the future rainfall projections.

Download
Short summary
This paper explores the consideration and implication of calibration period on the modelled climate change impact on future runoff.