Articles | Volume 386
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-133-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-133-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Evaluation of climate change impacts on urban flooding using high-resolution rainfall data
Hideo Amaguchi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department civil and environmental engineering, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, 192-0397, Japan
Jonas Olsson
Swedish Metrological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoping, 601, Sweden
Akira Kawamura
Department civil and environmental engineering, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, 192-0397, Japan
Yoshiyuki Imamura
Department civil and environmental engineering, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, 192-0397, Japan
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Jafet C. M. Andersson, Jonas Olsson, Remco (C. Z.) van de Beek, and Jonas Hansryd
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5411–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5411-2022, 2022
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This article presents data from three types of sensors for rain measurement, i.e. commercial microwave links (CMLs), gauges, and weather radar. Access to CML data is typically restricted, which limits research and applications. We openly share a large CML database (364 CMLs at 10 s resolution with true coordinates), along with 11 gauges and one radar composite. This opens up new opportunities to study CMLs, to benchmark algorithms, and to investigate how multiple sensors can best be combined.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
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We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, and Remco van de Beek
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 59–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-59-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-59-2021, 2021
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We have developed a tool to visualize rainfall observations, based on a combination of meteorological stations and weather radars, over Sweden in near real-time. By accumulating the rainfall in time (1–12 h) and space (hydrological basins), the tool is designed mainly for hydrological applications, e.g. to support flood forecasters and to facilitate post-event analyses. Despite evident uncertainties, different users have confirmed an added value of the tool in case studies.
Marc Schleiss, Jonas Olsson, Peter Berg, Tero Niemi, Teemu Kokkonen, Søren Thorndahl, Rasmus Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Denica Bozhinova, and Seppo Pulkkinen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3157–3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3157-2020, 2020
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A multinational assessment of radar's ability to capture heavy rain events is conducted. In total, six different radar products in Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden were considered. Results show a fair agreement, with radar underestimating by 17 %-44 % on average compared with gauges. Despite being adjusted for bias, five of six radar products still exhibited strong conditional biases with intensities of 1–2% per mm/h. Median peak intensity bias was significantly higher, reaching 44 %–67%.
Remco (C. Z.) van de Beek, Jonas Olsson, and Jafet Andersson
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 79–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-79-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-79-2020, 2020
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High-resolution precipitation observation based on signal attenuation in a Commercial Microwave Link (CML) network is an emerging technique that is becoming more and more used. Here a pragmatic method for estimating the optimal resolution is presented. The method is demonstrated using a CML network and a representative precpitation pattern in Stockholm, Sweden. One application would be feasibility investigations in cities considering starting CML-based precipitation observations.
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
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A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Kean Foster, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, and Jonas Olsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018, 2018
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Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir management is required for optimal production throughout the year and accurate seasonal forecasts are essential for this. In this work we develop a seasonal forecast prototype and evaluate its ability to predict spring flood volumes, a critical variable, in northern Sweden. We show that the prototype is better than the operational system on average 65 % of the time and reduces the volume error by ~ 6 %.
J. Olsson, C. B. Uvo, K. Foster, and W. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 659–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-659-2016, 2016
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New approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in spring-flood hindcasts for three Swedish rivers over a 10-year period. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 5 % was indicated, as compared with today's approach.
W. Yang, M. Gardelin, J. Olsson, and T. Bosshard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2037–2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, 2015
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A distribution-based scaling approach was developed and proven useful as a post-process to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) to facilitate the utilisation of climate projections in forest fire risk studies. The result showed reduction of bias in forcing data and an improved description of fire-risk-related indices. Concerning the future climate, southern Sweden is likely to become a more fire-prone region.
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Short summary
In this research, event-based simulations were conducted using inputs from a regional climate model, providing a resolution of 5 km and updating every 10 min for both present and future climate scenarios. The findings suggest that future storms may lead to increased flooding in the watershed. This study highlights the importance of using high-resolution data to understand and prepare for the potential impacts of climate change on urban rivers.
In this research, event-based simulations were conducted using inputs from a regional climate...