Proceedings of IAHS
Proceedings of IAHS
PIAHS
Articles | Volume 386
Articles | Volume 386
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-13-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-13-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 386
Post-conference publication
 | 
19 Apr 2024
Post-conference publication |  | 19 Apr 2024

Estimating the rate of change in heavy rainfall intensity for flood control planning in Japan

Yuta Maeda, Tetsuya Takeshita, and Masaki Kawasaki

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Short summary
Heavy rainfall leading to disasters is projected to intensify and become more frequent as the average global temperature continues to rise. We have estimated the ratio of the intensity of heavy rainfall in the future to that in the past (hereinafter referred to as “rainfall change rate”), using large-ensemble climate model predictions. The results show that the average rainfall change rate across Japan is 1.1, with an increase in temperature of 2 °C. The rate is higher in the northern Japan.
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