Articles | Volume 385
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-485-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.Return periods in current and future climate
Abstract
For Danish conditions, discrete rain intensity climate factors for a 100-year time horizon are generalized to continuous curves as functions of the return period. Assuming the tails of the distribution functions for T-year events to be approximately exponential, a general formula for projecting current return periods into future return periods is developed. Moreover, the uncertainty of the future T-values due to uncertainty in the climate factor is approximately assessed using first order analysis.
Keywords
1 Introduction
2 Continuous climate factor curves
3 Projection of the current return period into a future return period
4 Uncertainty of projected future return periods
5 Conclusions
Code availability
Data availability
Competing interests
Disclaimer
Special issue statement
Acknowledgements
Review statement
References