Proceedings of IAHS
Proceedings of IAHS
PIAHS
Articles | Volume 385
Articles | Volume 385
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 385
Post-conference publication
 | 
18 Apr 2024
Post-conference publication |  | 18 Apr 2024

UPH Problem 20 – reducing uncertainty in model prediction: a model invalidation approach based on a Turing-like test

Keith Beven, Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Ann Kretzschmar, Barry Hankin, and Nick Chappell

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Short summary
This paper presents a method of deciding when a hydrological model might be fit for purpose given the limitations of the data that are available for model evaluation. In this case the purpose is to reproduce the peak flows for an application that is concerned with evaluating the effect of natural flood management measures on flood peaks. It is shown that while all the models fail to pass the test at all time steps, there is an ensemble of models that pass for the hydrograph peaks.
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