Articles | Volume 379
Proc. IAHS, 379, 301–311, 2018
Proc. IAHS, 379, 301–311, 2018

Pre-conference publication 05 Jun 2018

Pre-conference publication | 05 Jun 2018

The impacts of climate change on irrigation and crop production in Northeast China and implications for energy use and GHG Emission

Tingting Yan1, Jinxia Wang2, Jikun Huang2, Wei Xie2, and Tingju Zhu3 Tingting Yan et al.
  • 1Development Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China
  • 2School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • 3International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K St, NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA

Abstract. The water-food-energy-GHG nexus under climate change has been gaining increasing attention from both the research and policy communities, especially over the past several years. However, most existing nexus studies are qualitative and explorative in nature. So far, very few studies provide integrated analysis of this nexus across all the four sectors. The purpose of this paper is to examine this nexus by assessing the effects of climate change on agricultural production through the change in water availability, evaluating the adjustment responses and resulting energy consumption and GHG emission, with the Northeast China as a case study. Based on our simulation results, by 2030, climate change is projected to increase water supply and demand gap for irrigation in Northeast China. Due to the increase in water scarcity, irrigated areas will decrease, and the cropping pattern will be adjusted by increasing maize sown areas and decreasing rice sown areas. As a result, the total output of crops and profits will clearly be reduced. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emission from irrigation will be reduced. This study suggests that climate change impact assessment fully consider the nexus among water, food, energy and GHG; however, more studies need to be conducted in the future.

Short summary
Climate change impact assessment should fully consider the nexus among water, food and energy. In Northeast China, climate change is projected to increase the gap between irrigation supply and demand, reduce not only crops output, but also energy use and GHG emission from irrigation in 2030. The adaptation measures adopted by farmers will lessen the risk of climate change, such as implementing irrigation measures, optimizing the cropping pattern and improving water productivities.