We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.

We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability.

This study focuses on a northwestern European cropland region and shows that the type of crop growing on a soil has notable effects on the emission of nitrous oxide (N₂O – a greenhouse gas) from that soil. It was found that N₂O emissions from soils under oilseed cultivation are significantly higher than soils under cereal cultivation. This variation is mostly explained by the fact that oilseeds require more nitrogen (fertiliser) than cereals, especially at early crop growth stages.

This paper describes simple models of phosphorus load which are identified for three catchments in the UK. The models use new hourly observations of phosphorus load, which capture the dynamics of phosphorus transfer in small catchments that are often missed by models with a longer time step. Unlike more complex, process-based models, very few parameters are required, leading to low parameter uncertainty. Interpretation of the dominant phosphorus transfer modes is made based solely on the data.

We assessed the nitrogen (N), carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) budget from an intensively managed grassland in southern Scotland using flux budget calculations as well as changes in soil N and C pools over time. Estimates from flux budget calculations indicated that N and C were sequestered, whereas soil stock measurements indicated a smaller N storage and a loss of C from the ecosystem. The GHG sink strength of the net CO₂ ecosystem exchange was strongly affected by CH₄ and N₂O emissions.