In this paper, the Yellow River water supply area is taken as an example. According to PDSI, the extreme drought years are selected to obtain the water shortage in each water supply area. According to different potential mining measures, different water supply scenarios are set up to explore multi-scenario supply increase under extreme drought conditions. The allocation model is constructed, and a multi-scenario supply allocation scheme is proposed.

An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin to provide adaptive support in a changing environment. The system consists of downscaled NMME climate prediction, hydrological models calibrated against naturalized streamflow along the mainstream, and a post-processor to account for the human interventions implicitly. As the first paper of a two-part series, this paper investigates the hydrological predictability by using reverse ESP simulations.