Articles | Volume 371
Proc. IAHS, 371, 89–94, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-89-2015
Proc. IAHS, 371, 89–94, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-89-2015

  12 Jun 2015

12 Jun 2015

Drought assessment and trends analysis from 20th century to 21st century over China

X. L. Yang, L. L. Ren, R. Tong, Y. Liu, X. R. Cheng, S. H. Jiang, and F. Yuan X. L. Yang et al.
  • State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

Abstract. Droughts are becoming the most expensive natural disasters in China and have exerted serious impacts on local economic development and ecological environment. The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future period. In this study, fine-resolution multimodel climate projections over China are developed based on 7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios by means of Bilinear Interpolation and Bias Correction. The results of downscaled CMIP5 models are evaluated over China by comparing the model outputs with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1 from 1951 to 2000. Accordingly, the results from the output of downscaled models are used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Time series of SPI has been used to identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. The results show that, most areas of China are projected to become wetter as a consequence of increasing precipitation under RCP8.5 scenarios. Detailed examination shows that the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region of China will become the norm in the future RCP8.5 scenarios.

Download
Short summary
7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios were downscaled by means of bilinear interpolation and bias correction. The downscaled results are evaluated over China by comparing with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1. Time series of SPI has been used to identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region of China will become the norm in the future.