Design impact and significance of non-stationarity of variance in extreme rainfall

Al Saji, M.; O'Sullivan, J. J.; O'Connor, A.

doi:10.5194/piahs-371-117-2015

Articles | Volume 371

https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-117-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-117-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 371

12 Jun 2015

| 12 Jun 2015

Design impact and significance of non-stationarity of variance in extreme rainfall

M. Al Saji, J. J. O'Sullivan, and A. O'Connor

Viewed

Total article views: 1,718 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
997	622	99	1,718	151	194

HTML: 997
PDF: 622
XML: 99
Total: 1,718
BibTeX: 151
EndNote: 194

Views and downloads (calculated since 12 Jun 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2015	23	16	1	40
Jul 2015	34	28	0	62
Aug 2015	13	4	0	17
Sep 2015	3	3	0	6
Oct 2015	8	4	1	13
Nov 2015	12	5	0	17
Dec 2015	3	5	0	8
Jan 2016	4	8	0	12
Feb 2016	1	1	0	2
Mar 2016	7	2	0	9
Apr 2016	1	2	0	3
May 2016	5	6	1	12
Jun 2016	2	0	2
Jul 2016	1	1	1	3
Aug 2016	2	0	2
Sep 2016	3	0	3
Oct 2016	4	3	1	8
Nov 2016	1	2	0	3
Dec 2016	2	0	2
Jan 2017	2	3	0	5
Feb 2017	3	0	3
Mar 2017	4	3	0	7
Apr 2017	7	3	1	11
May 2017	8	3	0	11
Jun 2017	8	5	0	13
Jul 2017	1	1	0	2
Aug 2017	3	4	0	7
Sep 2017	2	3	0	5
Oct 2017	2	6	0	8
Nov 2017	4	8	1	13
Dec 2017	4	2	0	6
Jan 2018	3	2	0	5
Feb 2018	16	4	3	23
Mar 2018	8	3	1	12
Apr 2018	3	4	0	7
May 2018	4	3	0	7
Jun 2018	7	7	1	15
Jul 2018	5	3	0	8
Aug 2018	4	6	0	10
Sep 2018	4	6	0	10
Oct 2018	3	4	0	7
Nov 2018	5	5	0	10
Dec 2018	6	3	0	9
Jan 2019	8	9	1	18
Feb 2019	11	2	0	13
Mar 2019	8	7	0	15
Apr 2019	4	2	0	6
May 2019	9	3	1	13
Jun 2019	6	8	0	14
Jul 2019	3	9	0	12
Aug 2019	5	2	1	8
Sep 2019	6	10	0	16
Oct 2019	6	1	0	7
Nov 2019	3	3	0	6
Dec 2019	6	5	0	11
Jan 2020	5	6	0	11
Feb 2020	8	3	1	12
Mar 2020	8	5	0	13
Apr 2020	8	6	0	14
May 2020	13	7	1	21
Jun 2020	30	12	1	43
Jul 2020	60	44	41	145
Aug 2020	8	5	1	14
Sep 2020	5	3	0	8
Oct 2020	9	7	0	16
Nov 2020	5	2	0	7
Dec 2020	4	5	0	9
Jan 2021	4	3	0	7
Feb 2021	4	3	0	7
Mar 2021	4	3	0	7
Apr 2021	2	3	0	5
May 2021	5	2	0	7
Jun 2021	4	5	0	9
Jul 2021	3	3	0	6
Aug 2021	3	5	0	8
Sep 2021	4	4	0	8
Oct 2021	6	17	0	23
Nov 2021	9	9	1	19
Dec 2021	7	3	0	10
Jan 2022	6	6	0	12
Feb 2022	5	1	1	7
Mar 2022	5	5	0	10
Apr 2022	4	2	1	7
May 2022	4	3	0	7
Jun 2022	3	3	0	6
Jul 2022	4	0	4
Aug 2022	4	2	0	6
Sep 2022	5	4	0	9
Oct 2022	3	2	0	5
Nov 2022	9	3	0	12
Dec 2022	8	7	0	15
Jan 2023	7	6	1	14
Feb 2023	4	1	0	5
Mar 2023	5	2	0	7
Apr 2023	5	4	0	9
May 2023	6	4	0	10
Jun 2023	3	3	1	7
Jul 2023	2	3	1	6
Aug 2023	2	3	0	5
Sep 2023	4	4	1	9
Oct 2023	1	0	1
Nov 2023	3	1	0	4
Dec 2023	8	2	1	11
Jan 2024	8	5	3	16
Feb 2024	2	0	2
Mar 2024	4	1	0	5
Apr 2024	6	2	2	10
May 2024	7	4	2	13
Jun 2024	14	2	1	17
Jul 2024	14	3	1	18
Aug 2024	26	2	3	31
Sep 2024	11	5	2	18
Oct 2024	5	3	1	9
Nov 2024	9	1	0	10
Dec 2024	4	2	0	6
Jan 2025	3	5	3	11
Feb 2025	8	5	3	16
Mar 2025	14	7	2	23
Apr 2025	12	7	0	19
May 2025	16	4	1	21
Jun 2025	24	11	1	36
Jul 2025	21	7	0	28
Aug 2025	34	6	1	41
Sep 2025	62	11	0	73
Oct 2025	21	16	2	39
Nov 2025	18	17	1	36
Dec 2025	13	11	2	26

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 12 Jun 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2015	23	16	1	40
Jul 2015	34	28	0	62
Aug 2015	13	4	0	17
Sep 2015	3	3	0	6
Oct 2015	8	4	1	13
Nov 2015	12	5	0	17
Dec 2015	3	5	0	8
Jan 2016	4	8	0	12
Feb 2016	1	1	0	2
Mar 2016	7	2	0	9
Apr 2016	1	2	0	3
May 2016	5	6	1	12
Jun 2016	2	0	2
Jul 2016	1	1	1	3
Aug 2016	2	0	2
Sep 2016	3	0	3
Oct 2016	4	3	1	8
Nov 2016	1	2	0	3
Dec 2016	2	0	2
Jan 2017	2	3	0	5
Feb 2017	3	0	3
Mar 2017	4	3	0	7
Apr 2017	7	3	1	11
May 2017	8	3	0	11
Jun 2017	8	5	0	13
Jul 2017	1	1	0	2
Aug 2017	3	4	0	7
Sep 2017	2	3	0	5
Oct 2017	2	6	0	8
Nov 2017	4	8	1	13
Dec 2017	4	2	0	6
Jan 2018	3	2	0	5
Feb 2018	16	4	3	23
Mar 2018	8	3	1	12
Apr 2018	3	4	0	7
May 2018	4	3	0	7
Jun 2018	7	7	1	15
Jul 2018	5	3	0	8
Aug 2018	4	6	0	10
Sep 2018	4	6	0	10
Oct 2018	3	4	0	7
Nov 2018	5	5	0	10
Dec 2018	6	3	0	9
Jan 2019	8	9	1	18
Feb 2019	11	2	0	13
Mar 2019	8	7	0	15
Apr 2019	4	2	0	6
May 2019	9	3	1	13
Jun 2019	6	8	0	14
Jul 2019	3	9	0	12
Aug 2019	5	2	1	8
Sep 2019	6	10	0	16
Oct 2019	6	1	0	7
Nov 2019	3	3	0	6
Dec 2019	6	5	0	11
Jan 2020	5	6	0	11
Feb 2020	8	3	1	12
Mar 2020	8	5	0	13
Apr 2020	8	6	0	14
May 2020	13	7	1	21
Jun 2020	30	12	1	43
Jul 2020	60	44	41	145
Aug 2020	8	5	1	14
Sep 2020	5	3	0	8
Oct 2020	9	7	0	16
Nov 2020	5	2	0	7
Dec 2020	4	5	0	9
Jan 2021	4	3	0	7
Feb 2021	4	3	0	7
Mar 2021	4	3	0	7
Apr 2021	2	3	0	5
May 2021	5	2	0	7
Jun 2021	4	5	0	9
Jul 2021	3	3	0	6
Aug 2021	3	5	0	8
Sep 2021	4	4	0	8
Oct 2021	6	17	0	23
Nov 2021	9	9	1	19
Dec 2021	7	3	0	10
Jan 2022	6	6	0	12
Feb 2022	5	1	1	7
Mar 2022	5	5	0	10
Apr 2022	4	2	1	7
May 2022	4	3	0	7
Jun 2022	3	3	0	6
Jul 2022	4	0	4
Aug 2022	4	2	0	6
Sep 2022	5	4	0	9
Oct 2022	3	2	0	5
Nov 2022	9	3	0	12
Dec 2022	8	7	0	15
Jan 2023	7	6	1	14
Feb 2023	4	1	0	5
Mar 2023	5	2	0	7
Apr 2023	5	4	0	9
May 2023	6	4	0	10
Jun 2023	3	3	1	7
Jul 2023	2	3	1	6
Aug 2023	2	3	0	5
Sep 2023	4	4	1	9
Oct 2023	1	0	1
Nov 2023	3	1	0	4
Dec 2023	8	2	1	11
Jan 2024	8	5	3	16
Feb 2024	2	0	2
Mar 2024	4	1	0	5
Apr 2024	6	2	2	10
May 2024	7	4	2	13
Jun 2024	14	2	1	17
Jul 2024	14	3	1	18
Aug 2024	26	2	3	31
Sep 2024	11	5	2	18
Oct 2024	5	3	1	9
Nov 2024	9	1	0	10
Dec 2024	4	2	0	6
Jan 2025	3	5	3	11
Feb 2025	8	5	3	16
Mar 2025	14	7	2	23
Apr 2025	12	7	0	19
May 2025	16	4	1	21
Jun 2025	24	11	1	36
Jul 2025	21	7	0	28
Aug 2025	34	6	1	41
Sep 2025	62	11	0	73
Oct 2025	21	16	2	39
Nov 2025	18	17	1	36
Dec 2025	13	11	2	26

Latest update: 21 Dec 2025

Short summary

Using the variance rather than the mean as the tested variable is shown to be more consistent for assessing non-stationarity of annual maximum daily rainfalls at eight rainfall stations in Dublin, Ireland. Observed step changes in variance are temporally consistent with a positive phase of the NAO suggesting they result from a climate change signal. Allowing for the step changes in design rainfalls produced increases from 5 to 16% for the 5-year event and from 20 to 41% for the 100-year event.