Design impact and significance of non-stationarity of variance in extreme rainfall

Al Saji, M.; O'Sullivan, J. J.; O'Connor, A.

doi:10.5194/piahs-371-117-2015

Articles | Volume 371

https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-117-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-117-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 371

12 Jun 2015

| 12 Jun 2015

Design impact and significance of non-stationarity of variance in extreme rainfall

M. Al Saji, J. J. O'Sullivan, and A. O'Connor

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Latest update: 07 Jan 2026

Short summary

Using the variance rather than the mean as the tested variable is shown to be more consistent for assessing non-stationarity of annual maximum daily rainfalls at eight rainfall stations in Dublin, Ireland. Observed step changes in variance are temporally consistent with a positive phase of the NAO suggesting they result from a climate change signal. Allowing for the step changes in design rainfalls produced increases from 5 to 16% for the 5-year event and from 20 to 41% for the 100-year event.