Articles | Volume 370
11 Jun 2015
 | 11 Jun 2015

Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

P. Skougaard Kaspersen, N. Høegh Ravn, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, H. Madsen, and M. Drews

Related authors

Beyond the stage-damage function: Estimating the economic damage on residential buildings from storm surges
Lea Skraep Svenningsen, Lisa Bay, Mads Lykke Doemgaard, Kirsten Halsnaes, Per Skougaard Kaspersen, and Morten Dahl Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2020
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
Short summary
Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding
Per Skougaard Kaspersen, Nanna Høegh Ravn, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Henrik Madsen, and Martin Drews
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4131–4147,,, 2017

Cited articles

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Madsen, H., and Mikkelsen, P. S.: Regional variation of extreme precipitation in Denmark – new version (1979–2005) (Skrift 28) (Regional Variation af ekstremregn i Danmark – ny bearbejdning (1979–2005) Skrift 28, IDA Spildevandskomiteen, 2006.
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Leonardsen, L., and Madsen, H.: Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario Regional Climate Model simulations, accepted, Clim. Res., 2015.
Arnold, C. L. and Gibbons, C. J.: Impervious Surface Coverage: The Emergence of a Key Environmental Indicator, J. Am. Plann. Assoc., 62, 243–258,, 1996.
Bauer, M. E., Loffelholz, B. C., and Wilson, B.: Estimating and mapping impervious surface area by regression analysis of Landsat imagery, in: Remote Sensing of Impervious Surfaces, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, p. 454, 2008.
Chang, H. and Franczyk, J.: Climate Change, Land-Use Change, and Floods: Toward an Integrated Assessment, Geogr. Compass, 2, 1549–1579,, 2008.

The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.

Short summary
A combined remote sensing and hydrological modelling approach is developed to examine the influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities towards flooding. Results show that the past 30 years of urban development has increased the exposure to pluvial flooding by 6-26%. Corresponding estimates for a medium and high climate change scenario (2071-2100) are 40% and 100%, indicating that urban land cover changes are central for the exposure of cities to flooding.