Compaction parameter estimation using surface movement data in Southern Flevoland

Abstract. The Southern part of the Flevopolder has shown considerable subsidence since its reclamation in 1967. We have set up an integrated method to use subsidence data, water level data and forward models for compaction, oxidation and the resulting subsidence to estimate the driving parameters. Our procedure, an Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation, is very fast and gives insight into the variability of the estimated parameters and the correlations between them. We used two forward models: the Koppejan model and the Bjerrum model. In first instance, the Bjerrum model seems to perform better than the Koppejan model. This must, however, be corroborated with more elaborate parameter estimation exercises in which in particular the water level development is taken into account.