Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting
- 1Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430205, China
- 2State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Keywords: AREM model, quantitative precipitation forecast, precipitation ensemble prediction, Xin Anjiang model, flood forecast
Abstract. The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.